Friday, October 19, 2007

Star Trek and Sabermetrics (I will leave Master Yoder for Another Time)

To begin, I would like to inform all of you that this post will be rather long but nevertheless a very interesting blog. For those of you not in the know, next Christmas (December 25, 2008) will be the greatest Christmas in recent memory. The prequel to Star Trek, Star Trek XI will be coming out and inspiring us all to live a greater life of peace and happiness. It will also inspire us to be manly individuals and attract beautiful women, like the young James T. Kirk does throughout his years at the Academy. It will also inspire to acquire tremendous philosophical understanding and to stop fighting stupid wars, instead we will stand for the greater good of society...much like the elder Spock who was influenced by the great Vulcan philosopher Surak (see beautiful photo above). Yes, it will be a great day.

Now, onto Sabermetrics. I am sure some of you are thinking this is some stupid idea to make gambling on baseball an easier activity, in reality sabermetrics is a tool to be used when arguing with the uninformed because it is a system that has been used to create amazing analysis to actually prove things like..."Who was faster, Joe DiMaggio or Willie Mays (Hayes)?"
This can be done by taking a look at numerous different statistics that value speed on the bases and in the field. Stats such as, who hit more triples, how many bases each man stole and how many times each player was caught in the act (of stealing). The conclusion and argument could subsequently be settled by viewing these objective facts.

Sabermetrics also laughs at ridiculous popular statistics such as batting average and the wins and losses of a pitcher. The batting average really does not determine how often an individual is on base or how many runs they may produce throughout a year. Runs are what really matter, therefore players are rated higher and valued much more if they have a better on base percentage. Same with the wins and losses for a pitcher. Wins do not show how well a pitcher has actually pitched. In countless situations, pitchers win when they pitched poorly or they have lost when they pitched well, making the stat worthless and outdated. Sabermetrics is an excellent way to value players and to figure out who actually is worth more than they are getting paid. Basically, it makes players like Andruw Jones look like giant wastes of money, which he is, and hard working players like Jimmy Rollins look like a very positive financial investment, which he is.

Now, I will go over a few simple sabermetric terms. Remember, this is the first lesson so covering three terms shall be enough for a brief introduction to the study of baseball and statistics. The first three statistics I will be covering are OPS (on base plus slugging), WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) and VORP (value over replacement player). I have chosen these because one deals with hitting, one with pitching and one because Moerder never shuts his trap about VORP and spouts off VORP totals like he is Mother Theresa hating on Christopher Hitchens.

On Base Plus Slugging:
This is a calculation of a players on base percentage plus slugging percentage. In essence, it is a calculation that puts a value on the players ability to get on base (this is important if you want to score runs) and his ability to hit for power, another important aspect to run production (see Barry Bonds in his big years...walks plus doubles plus homers = high total). The basic formula is OPS = OBP + SLG
This particular calculation takes hits, hit by pitch, walks, at bats, sac flies and total bases into consideration. However, one complaint behind this measurement is that the calculation does equally weigh OBP and SLG. The problem being that on base percentage translates into greater run production than slugging percentage. Here is a list of the greatest career OPS leaders, perhaps creating an argument for who is the most productive hitter. (I still like Bonds as the best ever, but perhaps I am finally wrong, haha.)
  1. Babe Ruth, 207
  2. Ted Williams, 190
  3. Barry Bonds, 182
  4. Lou Gehrig, 179
  5. Rogers Hornsby, 175
  6. Mickey Mantle, 172
  7. Albert Pujols, 171
  8. Dan Brouthers, 170
  9. Joe Jackson, 170
  10. Ty Cobb, 167
Next, we will be covering WHIP. This is a fairly simple statistic to understand. WHIP is used to determine how many runners a pitcher is responsible for per inning pitched. It is one of the many sabermetric measurements used to evaluate the effectiveness of a pitcher. It measures the ability for a pitcher to keep batters off of base, the most important aspect to preventing run production of the opposition.
WHIP = walks + hits/innings pitched
For those of you like Adam Moerder, WHIP is a tool that is very effective in the management of a fantasy baseball team.

Finally, one of the more intriguing sabermetrics stats is VORP (value over replacement player). It is a tool that demonstrates how effective a hitter is or how effective a pitcher is, compared with a fake replacement player that is average at their respective position. The replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent." (thank you wikipedia)
VORP can be used when comparing players from different eras because it shows the value of a player in comparison to the league average of that specific year.

VORP in regards to hitting:
Because runs and outs are the ultimate way to understand the value of a hitter, it is simple to figure out, just take the number of at-bats an individual has, subtract their total hits and then add any miscellaneous outs (caught stealing) and one can figure out how often a batter created an out on his voyage to producing runs. Loaded with runs and outs, the final VORP can be figured out for a particular individual.

VORP in regards to hitting:
VORP for pitchers is a measurement of the number of runs he has prevented from scoring that a replacement-level pitcher would have allowed. A scholarly text describes the pitchers VORP very well...The concept is essentially the same as it was for hitters: using the player's playing time (in a pitcher's case, his innings pitched), determine how many runs a theoretical "replacement" would have given up in that playing time (at the most basic level, the replacement level is equal to 1 plus the league's average runs per game), and subtract from that number the amount actually allowed by the pitcher to arrive at VORP.

Next lesson, we will go into Run Average which will gradually replace the ERA. Win Shares, which goes over the value of a player in a given year compared with the rest of the league and finally and defense independent pitching statistics, this goes over how effective a pitcher is by themselves without the fielder coming into the equation.

I am sorry I did not elaborate as much as I could. I expect my editors to post notes on ways to better understand certain concepts. Also, I could not continue the lesson because I need to take a nap before I bounce tonight.

5 comments:

Murder said...

Here are some other stats I like a
lot...

EQA (this one's really good)
FRAA (good to settle arguments about fielding)
RC/27 (basically answers the question "if i had 9 barry bonds's hitting in my lineup, how many runs would my team score a game?")

Batting average of balls put into play (BABIP) - this is useful for hitters and pitchers because in a way, you can't control balls hit into play (seeing-eye singles, bloops, etc). Sometimes players will have a really high BABIP for a season and everyone's like "Fuck yea! Robinson Cano is the shit!" but then the next year (2007), that BABIP will return to a normal level and everyone's like "Oh no! Who woulda thought that by never walking and hitting everything into play, Cano would hurt himself?!" It's a very good stat to predict how lucky players get and ESPN.com ran a great article on it last March before the season to predict who would probably have a dropoff because their BABIP was so high last year.
Strikeout/BB ratio - Very simple but useful stat for pitchers because, as I stated above, pitchers don't exactly have much control over what happens when a ball is put in play. Strikeouts make sure this doesn't happen, and walks are the worst thing ever (aside from homers) for a pitcher because you let a guy on base without the fielders even getting a chance to make a play.

Alright i'm done for now, jesus i love sabermetrics...

Heinsy said...

I just took a look at the imdb info on that star trek movie. I have to admit, I got excited.

Chiyo said...

Ok, I had to think too hard to read this one.

Kai said...

So most of that was ridonkulously boring and I didn't even read it, but I'm going to have this line printed on a T-shirt:

"It will also inspire us to be manly individuals and attract beautiful women, like the young James T. Kirk does throughout his years at the Academy."

Ducadunk14 said...

Yo..where is AROD on OPS...he has to be in there, the guy is a machine, huge Slugging percentage and on base this is a biased post